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发信人: xiaolang (阿宝错的方糕), 信区: Internet 标题: Re: 十亿互联网用户zz 发信站: 珞珈山水BBS站 (Sat May 13 11:05:34 2006), 转信原文 Some time in 2005, we quietly passed a dramatic milestone in Internet history: the one-billionth user went online. Because we have no central register of Internet users, we don't know who that user was, or when he or she first logged on. Statistically, we're likely talking about a 24-year-old woman in Shanghai. According to Morgan Stanley estimates, 36% of Internet users are now in Asia and 24% are in Europe. Only 23% of users are in North America, where it all started in 1969 when two computers -- one in Los Angeles, the other in Palo Alto -- were networked together. It took 36 years for the Internet to get its first billion users. The second billion will probably be added by 2015; most of these new users will be in Asia. The third billion will be harder, and might not be reached until 2040. In 2002, NUA estimated that we had 605 million Internet users. Since then, Internet use has grown by 18% per year -- certainly not as fast as the 1990s, but still respectable. Overall, the Internet's growth has been truly remarkable. Ten years ago, the 'net was mostly used by geeks; now it's the default way to do business in many countries. In our U.S. and European B2B studies, many business professionals said they visit a company's website as the first step in researching potential vendors. E-commerce Implications E-commerce will continue to grow. It typically takes people two to three years from when they first get online to feel confident enough to buy from websites. This means that e-commerce sales will at least double from their current level when more of the current billion users start shopping online. The billion-user Internet is a highly diverse environment that has moved far beyond the elite in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs. There are hundreds of millions of old people online, and there are even more users without fancy graduate degrees. Users are not like you, and the difference between elite and mainstream users is getting bigger every day. This means that for e-commerce to fulfill its potential to double, sites must be more systematic at following the e-commerce usability guidelines. Selling to the 200 million early adopters was easy. The 800 million mainstream users who are now starting to shop need much smoother sites; the next billion will require even higher usability levels. Demographic Shifts By 2015, Americans will be less than 15% of Internet users and will likely account for about one-third its value (Americans typically spend more than other users). The fact that two-thirds of Internet revenues will come from other countries highlights the growing importance of international usability. Unfortunately, few companies currently do user testing abroad, and fewer still have a truly robust internationalization strategy. Sooner or later, local options will increase and overseas users will stop using sites that don't meet their requirements. Another implication of this demographic shift: U.S. market share and Silicon Valley buzz will become less important than international use as the metric for judging the potential of companies and technologies. The Mac, for example, already matters less than you think. Although it has a prominent role in the U.S., it's hard to refer to a company with single-digit market share as "dominant." In Asia, the Mac is practically nonexistent. China, India, and Usability As China and India add another billion Internet users, the need for usability in these two markets will explode. As I mentioned three years ago, the two nations can't even meet the demands for offshore usability. Recently, I've heard even worse stories from several big American and European companies who've found it almost impossible to recruit high-quality usability staff for their development teams in China and India. There's obviously a risk that offshoring will absorb the talent in China and India, leaving their domestic website design projects wanting. Difficult-to-use Chinese and Indian sites will have dire consequences for the second billion users' productivity and happiness. To meet the demand for senior usability professionals over the next decade, both countries -- as well as other large nations in Asia and Latin America -- need a crash program to grow domestic usability professionals. Putting aside the details of how to make the multi-billion-user Web work, the very fact that it's realistic to expect a second billion users points to interactive media's compelling value. People all over the world are experiencing unprecedented levels of empowerment: being able to do things is why the Web has grown so fast, and will continue to grow for years to come. 【在 xiaolang (阿宝错的方糕) 的大作中提到: 】 : 互联网用户以每年18%的速度增长，现在已经有十亿人了。第二十亿个用户将在随后的十年中产生，这对于全世界的可用性需求来说，将引起巨大的改变。 : 在2005年的某个时刻，我们平静地度过了互联网历史上一个巨大的里程碑：在网上已经有了10亿用户。由于我们没有互联网用户注册中心，我们不知道那位用户是谁，也不知道他（她）何时第一次登录。统计上来说，很可能是一位24岁的上海女士。 : 根据摩根·斯坦利的估计，现在36%的因特网用户在亚洲，24%在欧洲。只有23%的用户在因特网的诞生地北美。在1969年只有两台电脑互相联网，一台在安各莱斯，另一台在宝莱奥托。 : ................... -- ※ 来源:·珞珈山水BBS站 bbs.whu.edu.cn·[FROM: 58.24.82.*]
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发信人: xiaolang (阿宝错的方糕), 信区: Internet
标题: Re: 十亿互联网用户zz
发信站: 珞珈山水BBS站 (Sat May 13 11:05:34 2006), 转信

原文

Some time in 2005, we quietly passed a dramatic milestone in Internet history: the one-billionth user went online. Because we have no central register of Internet users, we don't know who that user was, or when he or she first logged on. Statistically, we're likely talking about a 24-year-old woman in Shanghai.

According to Morgan Stanley estimates, 36% of Internet users are now in Asia and 24% are in Europe. Only 23% of users are in North America, where it all started in 1969 when two computers -- one in Los Angeles, the other in Palo Alto -- were networked together.

It took 36 years for the Internet to get its first billion users. The second billion will probably be added by 2015; most of these new users will be in Asia. The third billion will be harder, and might not be reached until 2040.

In 2002, NUA estimated that we had 605 million Internet users. Since then, Internet use has grown by 18% per year -- certainly not as fast as the 1990s, but still respectable.

Overall, the Internet's growth has been truly remarkable. Ten years ago, the 'net was mostly used by geeks; now it's the default way to do business in many countries. In our U.S. and European B2B studies, many business professionals said they visit a company's website as the first step in researching potential vendors.

E-commerce Implications
E-commerce will continue to grow. It typically takes people two to three years from when they first get online to feel confident enough to buy from websites. This means that e-commerce sales will at least double from their current level when more of the current billion users start shopping online.
The billion-user Internet is a highly diverse environment that has moved far beyond the elite in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs. There are hundreds of millions of old people online, and there are even more users without fancy graduate degrees. Users are not like you, and the difference between elite and mainstream users is getting bigger every day.

This means that for e-commerce to fulfill its potential to double, sites must be more systematic at following the e-commerce usability guidelines. Selling to the 200 million early adopters was easy. The 800 million mainstream users who are now starting to shop need much smoother sites; the next billion will require even higher usability levels.

Demographic Shifts
By 2015, Americans will be less than 15% of Internet users and will likely account for about one-third its value (Americans typically spend more than other users). The fact that two-thirds of Internet revenues will come from other countries highlights the growing importance of international usability. Unfortunately, few companies currently do user testing abroad, and fewer still have a truly robust internationalization strategy. Sooner or later, local options will increase and overseas users will stop using sites that don't meet their requirements.
Another implication of this demographic shift: U.S. market share and Silicon Valley buzz will become less important than international use as the metric for judging the potential of companies and technologies. The Mac, for example, already matters less than you think. Although it has a prominent role in the U.S., it's hard to refer to a company with single-digit market share as "dominant." In Asia, the Mac is practically nonexistent.

China, India, and Usability
As China and India add another billion Internet users, the need for usability in these two markets will explode. As I mentioned three years ago, the two nations can't even meet the demands for offshore usability. Recently, I've heard even worse stories from several big American and European companies who've found it almost impossible to recruit high-quality usability staff for their development teams in China and India.
There's obviously a risk that offshoring will absorb the talent in China and India, leaving their domestic website design projects wanting. Difficult-to-use Chinese and Indian sites will have dire consequences for the second billion users' productivity and happiness. To meet the demand for senior usability professionals over the next decade, both countries -- as well as other large nations in Asia and Latin America -- need a crash program to grow domestic usability professionals.

Putting aside the details of how to make the multi-billion-user Web work, the very fact that it's realistic to expect a second billion users points to interactive media's compelling value. People all over the world are experiencing unprecedented levels of empowerment: being able to do things is why the Web has grown so fast, and will continue to grow for years to come.

【在 xiaolang (阿宝错的方糕) 的大作中提到: 】
: 互联网用户以每年18%的速度增长，现在已经有十亿人了。第二十亿个用户将在随后的十年中产生，这对于全世界的可用性需求来说，将引起巨大的改变。
: 在2005年的某个时刻，我们平静地度过了互联网历史上一个巨大的里程碑：在网上已经有了10亿用户。由于我们没有互联网用户注册中心，我们不知道那位用户是谁，也不知道他（她）何时第一次登录。统计上来说，很可能是一位24岁的上海女士。
: 根据摩根·斯坦利的估计，现在36%的因特网用户在亚洲，24%在欧洲。只有23%的用户在因特网的诞生地北美。在1969年只有两台电脑互相联网，一台在安各莱斯，另一台在宝莱奥托。
: ...................

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※ 来源:·珞珈山水BBS站 bbs.whu.edu.cn·[FROM: 58.24.82.*]

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